A recent article I wrote for my former employer’s blog:

Studios are reporting the biggest Memorial Day weekend ever.  Why is this important? The advertising industry is consumed these days with articles about the “changing” media landscape, detailing why it will never be the same. While it’s important that we keep up with the advancement of media technology, it’s also important to recognize that we’re not experiencing a rapid, wholesale transformation of an entire society’s media consumption habits. People still love to go to the movies, watch cable television, and, gasp, read the occasional newspaper.

What we’re experiencing is more of an evolution. Some people are quickly adopting  new technology – but not everyone. And many of the adopters aren’t necessarily dumping the old media but rather adding another way to consume media to their diet. Here are nine statistics that might surprise you if you’ve spent too much time reading and listening to the gurus.

• While every social media expert may own an iPhone, most Americans still don’t own any smartphone at all.
• Unlike me, most people aren’t dumping cable for Internet TV. More people than ever are subscribing to broadband Internet and cable TV.  Only 3.9 percent have broadband.
• 45 percent of all ads recorded on DVRs are actually viewed.
• Only 10 percent of Americans have devices that connect their TVs to the Web.
• The top bandwidth hog for mobile is e-mail, not social networking.
• Pop stars are still selling millions of singles.
• E-book sales may be skyrocketing, but only 5 percent of people own a dedicated device to read one on.
• People are using iPads with TV, not instead of it.
• Most people are not interested in owning a 3-D television. In fact, most don’t even own an HD set yet.

So what’s the takeaway for a marketer who wants to make the most out of the latest technology? Know your customer, learn her habits, and you’ll find it easy to speak to her where she is.

Most predictions are either easy, safe, or just wrong. So why not add a few more to the list? I dare you to go on the record on which ones of these are wrong.

1. Mobile Web will become even bigger.
2. The kids will continue to text at an alarming rate — it’s private you know.
3. Social media will become more important to businesses — especially B2B, entertainment, and high-involvement products and services.
4. Television will still be very important to consumer marketing.
5. SEO will still not be understood by many ad agencies, nor will they care.
6. Flash will still be over used.
7. Bad ads will be ignored even more easily.
8. Tribilization of users, listeners, and viewers will further fragment audiences and confuse marketers.
9. Boomer execs will struggle with understanding social media, much less understanding how to implement it strategically.
10. “Guru” will become a four letter word when put after “social media.”
11. Clients will still not buy your best ideas but you’ll still be pressured to present it.
12. Agencies will be slow to hire, even people they need.
13. Web video will continue to blow up and frustrate old school production companies trying to make a profit.
14. Begrudgingly marketing executives will accept that Twitter isn’t a fad but still think it’s stupid — then turn on their NASCAR.
15. “Microsite” will be removed from the urban dictionary for lack of coolness.
16. Foursquare will create real returns for smart business and some guys in New York.
17. That Apple tablet will finally appear and so will another iPhone that will make you want to throw away your lame and old 3GS.
18. Interactive agencies will leverage their bandwidth and expertise to wrench away agency of record agreements from traditional shops — especially in B2B and tech categories.
19. Very-small agencies will be at a disadvantage pitching accounts since most clients will be looking to see strong and expansive digital capabilities from their agency partners.
20. Very-large agencies will have a hard time changing course to create true digital capabilities and still meet the new, tightwad, cost expectations of clients.
21. Agency people will still be prattling about how cool their iPhones are.
22. Same agency people will still be presenting “iPhone App” ideas to clients using Blackberries, Palms, Microsoft, and Google smart phones.
23. 13% of Art directors will burn out and start presenting the same layouts in different colors for all concepts, clients, and mediums.
24. Salaries will remain flat.
25. Your boss or client will buy a Porsche but feel the need to make excuses about how it was too good a deal to pass up.

I’m writing this from the set. I’m a day and a half into the production of a series of informational videos for a B2B client. Trust me, if you’re not in the automotive wholesale remarketing business, you probably won’t ever want to see them. And that’s totally fine.

Over the past six months, I’d say half of the projects I’ve worked on haven’t been traditional branding or promotional, they fall into the category of content. They are created to directly inform the audience/customer about the category. That’s right, mostly-unbiased information.

This is a huge swing compared to when I first entered the business. Then the internet was new and branding was all the rage. The majority of the work we produced was to reinforce the brand name and its unique selling position.

Now Mark Earls is telling us the big idea is dead. And the 30 second spot is also dead. So is it time to contemplate the future of advertising messaging? I’m going to go on the record and say that this more altruistic form of “solution selling” is here to stay, especially in B2B categories and for high-involvement purchases. Frankly, people would much rather buy from a helpful teacher than a class clown or a loud-mouthed salesman. Especially when the purchase matters.

I can’t tell you how many people have told me in the last year that TV is dead. Unlike the changes we’re seeing in printed media, this couldn’t be further from reality.

Nevertheless, the way we’re watching TV has changed. But there are some misconceptions about the way we’re watching TV. For example, that everyone is using DVRs now and this is going to kill TV advertising. Actually, DVR use is up with older folks but the younger, more sought after audience, is watching programs on Hulu. And Hulu is capturing more money per eyeball than traditional television. Also, more people are also watching programs on mobile devices. Some programs people actually pay for on places like the iTunes Store.

So what’s the takeaway here? People are watching. But TV isn’t just on the same old box anymore. So it’s going to take different ways for advertisers to engage consumers than just running a spot on the idiot box. And it’s going to take more than just selling ad space from networks if they want to continue to generate the same revenue from their programing.

People still want to watch Lost but they’re just not so interested in appointment viewing anymore without a really good reason to tune in on time.  Fox gave it to them with “tweet peats” and Barack Obama, CNN and Facebook hit a home run with the State of the Union. This is not to imply that social media the solution to all of TV’s problems, just one of many solutions that will be required for TV to adapt to a changing world.

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I’ve been spending a lot of time thinking about what’s next. On both a personal level, for the agency where I work, and for the industry as a whole. One thing that’s pretty darn obvious, things have already shifted. There have been several reports on industry spending and the shift toward digital. Spending is predicted to continue to increase in digital segments while it will stay flat at decreased 09 levels in traditional segments. There have also been so shifts that will most likely not be long term.

Agencies have heard loudly that serving the same old sauce isn’t going to land new clients and keep old ones. Things have to change so I’m going to go way out on a limb and make some predictions.

1. Agencies won’t be siloed the way they are in the future. Media, creative, and account service. We will still have creative girls and numbers guys, but media, planning, and some of what account service now does will be blurred. This will help produce better solutions for clients.
2. Successful agency/client relationships will touch a lot more departments. Working with a mid-level marketing department executive for the day to day won’t be enough. Customer experience, outbound communication, and even inbound communication will become so important to the brand that great client/agency relationships will work on all of this and more on as part of a branding effort.
3. Agencies will finally stop talking about the big idea and start talking about getting the details right. Who cares about a big idea when the brand experience is the new media? Getting the details right will make the brand successful.
4. Long thought of a slick hucksters, ad folks will be preaching truth, trust, and respect for the customer. Remember David Ogilvy’s “the customer isn’t an idiot, she’s your mother.” Well, don’t forget it. In fact, repeat it once or twice and you’ll be on the cutting edge.

Bonus prediction: Agencies will be confused about what to call themselves for near future. Using monikers like group, Inc., collective, partners, labs, and idea factory because they’re afraid to commit to being grouped as just a digital shop or a old school advertising agency. Eventually, they’ll all agree on what their industry is called and rename the AAAA.